Yankees' Four Errors Put Them on the Brink Against the Rays

Yankees Commit Four Errors in ALDS Game 2 Loss to the Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays beat the New York Yankees 5-2 on Monday night at Tropicana Field and lead the American League Division Series 2-0, according to ESPN. The Yankees committed four errors, three of them in the first inning, among other miscues, and head home for Game 3 on Wednesday facing elimination.

Ace Cam Schlittler escaped the first inning down only 1-0 despite the defense, then was pulled with one out in the fourth after 76 pitches. He allowed four runs, two of them earned, and struck out two. Rays starter Freddy Peralta was perfect through three innings, and Tampa Bay put up a four-run fifth.

I feel like we beat ourselves today in a lot of ways.

Ben Rice homered in the fourth and eighth innings, the first Yankee with two multihomer games in one postseason, but New York never strung together a rally. ESPN noted the Yankees played the Rays 13 times in the regular season and had stressed clean baseball for this series.

Rays at Yankees Game 3 Odds: What the Market Did

DraftKings still makes the Yankees the favorite at home, and the price has lengthened a little, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 6 at 9:10 AM ET.

The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.

Our Read: Sloppy Baseball Versus a Real Series Deficit

This is our reading of the facts above, not a prediction.

• Errors are noisy, and the market seems to treat them that way. Errors tend to be noisy, and a team that stressed clean baseball against this opponent is more likely to regress than repeat. The Game 3 price is consistent with that view.
• The scoreboard still counts. Schlittler was charged with four runs but only two earned, so the defense cost him, yet the Rays also had real hits and Rice's two homers were New York's only offense.
• Pitching matters more than the fielding story. Schlittler said his pitches were not as lively as usual. If that carries into his next start, it is a bigger issue than any single misplay.
• A 0-2 hole is steep either way. The Yankees were in the same spot against Toronto last year and lost in four games, ESPN noted. A favorite price at home says the market sees one game, not the series.

The evidence points both ways: a clean game is plausible, and so is a repeat of the offense that managed one hit through three innings.

What to Watch in ALDS Game 3

• Who starts Game 3 for each side and how deep the bullpens have to go.
• Whether Rice's power gets protection behind him in the lineup.
• Whether shortstop Lombard and second baseman Chisholm stay in the lineup after the throwing errors.
• Whether the Game 3 line moves again before first pitch at 8 PM ET Wednesday.

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