Bears Stay With Tyson Bagent, and the Packers Line Has Flipped
Chicago will start Tyson Bagent at Green Bay, yet DraftKings now has the Bears favored after opening with the Packers at -3. What moved and what to watch.
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Key takeaways
- Bears coach Ben Johnson said Tyson Bagent will start at quarterback against the Green Bay Packers, with Caleb Williams out three to four weeks, per ESPN.
- DraftKings opened Green Bay -3 and now has Chicago -3, a six-point swing, and the total fell from 49.5 to 44.5.
- The Bears have 1,716 yards through four games, a franchise high, and are 4-for-13 in the red zone since Week 2.
- The Packers won 17-14 at Tampa Bay and lost linebacker Edgerrin Cooper to a torn Achilles, ESPN reported.
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Bears Name Tyson Bagent Their Quarterback for the Packers Game
Chicago will start Tyson Bagent at quarterback against Green Bay on Sunday, coach Ben Johnson announced Monday. Caleb Williams has missed two straight games with a hamstring strain and is expected to be out three to four weeks, sources told ESPN.
Tyson will be the guy, and we'll go forward from there.
Bagent completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards and an interception in Sunday's 23-12 win over the Jets. Three more interceptions were wiped out by penalties, and Chicago leaned on a dominant rushing day, with Kyle Monangai carrying 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns. Monangai is dealing with a thumb injury of unknown severity.
Bears at Packers Odds: What the Market Did
The line has moved a long way toward Chicago. DraftKings opened the Packers as three-point favorites at home and now lists the Bears as three-point favorites, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 5 at 3:27 PM ET.
| Market | Opening | Current | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay -3 | Chicago -3 | Favorite changed, 6-point swing |
| Packers moneyline | -166 | +140 | Now the underdog |
| Bears moneyline | +140 | -166 | Now the favorite |
| Total | 49.5 | 44.5 | Down 5 |
The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.
Our Read: How a Backup Quarterback Can Still Be the Favorite
A line prices a team and not only its quarterback, and there are four reasons this one may have moved the way it did.
- The offense runs through the backfield. Chicago has 1,716 yards through four games, the most in franchise history, and it won Sunday without a passing touchdown.
- Bagent's line is cleaner than his day. Three more interceptions were negated by penalties, and Johnson called the performance a mixed bag. We would not treat 268 yards as proof.
- Green Bay is shorthanded on defense. The Packers held on 17-14 after two fourth-quarter turnovers, and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, with six tackles for loss, is done for the season.
- A lower total fits a run-first game. Five points came off the total, which is what a lower-scoring, clock-burning script would look like. It is a reading, not a fact.
None of this makes Chicago the right side. It explains why a team with a backup under center can still be priced as the favorite.
What to Watch Before Sunday
- Whether Monangai's thumb limits his workload, since the Bears leaned on him for 30 carries.
- Bagent's decisions on crossing routes and throws into traffic, after he took responsibility for the one that was picked.
- Chicago's red zone finish, 4-for-13 since Week 2 according to ESPN.
- Whether the line keeps moving once Cooper's injury and the quarterback news are fully priced in.
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