Lane Johnson Retires and the Eagles Line in London Swings 9.5 Points

Eagles Tackle Lane Johnson Retires Days Before the Jaguars Game in London

Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson announced his retirement Tuesday, ESPN reported. Johnson, 36, was a surprise inactive for Sunday's game against the Los Angeles Rams, and rookie Markel Bell started in his place. Bell is the most likely replacement for the rest of the season.

Right now it is critical that I focus on my mental health.

Johnson was the fourth overall pick in 2013, made six Pro Bowls and won two Super Bowls. ESPN reports the Eagles went 122-63-1 when he started and 18-30 when he did not. The 2-2 Eagles now travel to London to face the 3-1 Jaguars on Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with kickoff at 9:30 AM ET on NFL Network, per ESPN.

Eagles vs. Jaguars Odds: What the Market Did

The spread has moved by nearly ten points. DraftKings opened Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite and now lists Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 7 at 9:10 AM ET.

The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.

Our Read: Why a Retirement and a Road Trip Matter to the Price

This is our reading of the facts above, not a reported explanation of the move.

• The size of the move is the story. A 9.5-point swing is far more than one tackle usually accounts for, so we suspect the market is also repricing Jacksonville and the rest of the Eagles' injury list, which includes receiver DeVonta Smith as questionable and tight end Dallas Goedert as doubtful.
• The with-and-without record is real but blunt. A 122-63-1 mark against 18-30 spans 14 seasons and many other variables, so it shows his value over a career and not what one game will look like.
• Jacksonville's road habit cuts the other way. The Jaguars have won five of their last six road games under Liam Coen and are used to heavy travel, which may ease worries about a trip abroad. The same stretch is also a small sample.
• A lower total fits a worse offensive line. The total fell two points. A rookie at right tackle plausibly means fewer sustained Philadelphia drives, though the feed does not say that is the reason.

The evidence points both ways on whether the market has overreacted. A veteran leaving midseason is hard to price, and a line this lopsided for a 2-2 team that was a favorite at the open leaves little room for surprises.

What to Watch Before Sunday

• Who starts at right tackle for Philadelphia, and whether Bell gets help from tight ends or backs.
• The final injury report for Smith and Goedert.
• Whether the spread keeps moving once the lineup is set.
• How Jacksonville handles back-to-back London games, with the Texans next on October 18, per ESPN.

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