NFL Odds for Sunday, Oct 4: Spreads, Matchups and Win Chances
Spreads, totals and win chances for Sunday's NFL slate, line movement since opening, and context for the 5 closest games.
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Key takeaways
- Baltimore Ravens are the biggest favorite on the card at 85.2% to win once the margin is removed, and Arizona Cardinals the smallest at 55.1%.
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals has the highest total of the 13 games in the table at 51.5, and Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers the lowest at 38.5.
- Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants is where the market changed most: DraftKings opened New York Giants -7 and now has Arizona Cardinals -2.5.
- The total in Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell 9 points since opening, from 47.5 to 38.5.
- Every line is DraftKings as shown by ESPN on October 4 at 12:13 PM ET, and lines move before kickoff.
On this page
- NFL Odds for Sunday, October 4
- What Stands Out on Sunday's NFL Slate
- NFL Line Movement Since Opening on Sunday
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
- Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
- Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
- Other NFL Games on Sunday's Slate
- How We Turn Moneylines Into Win Probabilities
- Bet Within Your Limits
NFL Odds for Sunday, October 4
Sunday's slate, priced the way a bettor should read it. The table shows each spread, total and the win chance the moneyline implies once the sportsbook's margin is removed. The five closest games get a matchup breakdown below.
| Game | Kickoff | Spread | Total | Favorite win chance | Book margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM ET | Buffalo Bills -7 | 49.5 | 74.4% | 4.2% |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 1:00 PM ET | Chicago Bears -3.5 | 43.5 | 63.7% | 4.3% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00 PM ET | Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | 51.5 | 56.3% | 4.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | 1:00 PM ET | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 | 43.5 | 55.1% | 4.2% |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | 1:00 PM ET | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 42.5 | 63.7% | 4.3% |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1:00 PM ET | Green Bay Packers -3 | 38.5 | 59.3% | 4.2% |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | 1:00 PM ET | Baltimore Ravens -11.5 | 42.5 | 85.2% | 4.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | 1:00 PM ET | Houston Texans -3 | 48.5 | 57.2% | 4.3% |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 4:05 PM ET | Minnesota Vikings -10 | 38.5 | 80.8% | 4.3% |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 PM ET | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | 47.5 | 66.4% | 4.3% |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | 4:25 PM ET | San Francisco 49ers -3 | 48.5 | 59.3% | 4.2% |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | 4:25 PM ET | Seattle Seahawks -7 | 42.5 | 75.1% | 4.2% |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | 8:20 PM ET | Detroit Lions -3.5 | 51.5 | 63.7% | 4.3% |
Lines are DraftKings as published by ESPN on October 4 at 12:13 PM ET and will move before kickoff.
What Stands Out on Sunday's NFL Slate
The prices are one half of the picture. The other half is where they came from, who is riding a streak and where the market has changed its view since the lines opened.
- The market changed its mind. Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants opened with New York Giants -7 and now has Arizona Cardinals -2.5, a 9.5-point swing. It is the only favorite that changed.
- Biggest spread moves. New York Jets at Chicago Bears went from Chicago Bears -8.5 to Chicago Bears -3.5 and New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills went from Buffalo Bills -3 to Buffalo Bills -7.
- Totals tell a story too. Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell 9 points, from 47.5 to 38.5, the largest drop on the card. Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers rose 6, from 45.5 to 51.5, the largest rise.
- Perfect and winless. Unbeaten and playing today: Buffalo Bills (3-0), Minnesota Vikings (3-0), Kansas City Chiefs (3-0), Las Vegas Raiders (3-0), San Francisco 49ers (3-0). Winless and playing today: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3), Tennessee Titans (0-3), Houston Texans (0-3), Miami Dolphins (0-3), Los Angeles Chargers (0-3). Records are from ESPN's standings.
- Who is favored where. 5 of 13 home teams are underdogs and 5 road teams are favored. The biggest road favorite is Kansas City Chiefs -4.5.
- Longest losing streak. Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost 3 straight and are a 3-point underdog in Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
NFL Line Movement Since Opening on Sunday
Opening lines are the DraftKings numbers ESPN recorded when each game was first priced, and the current lines are the ones above. A big move means money or news arrived.
| Game | Opening spread | Current spread | Spread move | Opening total | Current total | Total move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills -3 | Buffalo Bills -7 | 4 points | 49.5 | 49.5 | no move |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears -8.5 | Chicago Bears -3.5 | 5 points | 45.5 | 43.5 | -2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | no move | 51.5 | 51.5 | no move |
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | New York Giants -7 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 | favorite changed | 45.5 | 43.5 | -2 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams -1.5 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 2 points | 47.5 | 42.5 | -5 |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers -1.5 | Green Bay Packers -3 | 1.5 points | 47.5 | 38.5 | -9 |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens -8.5 | Baltimore Ravens -11.5 | 3 points | 47.5 | 42.5 | -5 |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Houston Texans -2.5 | Houston Texans -3 | 0.5 points | 47.5 | 48.5 | +1 |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings -7.5 | Minnesota Vikings -10 | 2.5 points | 43.5 | 38.5 | -5 |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | 1 point | 43.5 | 47.5 | +4 |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | San Francisco 49ers -3 | 0.5 points | 46.5 | 48.5 | +2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks -3 | Seattle Seahawks -7 | 4 points | 45.5 | 42.5 | -3 |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions -3 | Detroit Lions -3.5 | 0.5 points | 45.5 | 51.5 | +6 |
A line can move because of injuries, weather, a quarterback change or simple betting volume, and the feed does not say which. Treat a move as a question to answer and not as an answer.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, total 51.5, 1:00 PM ET on CBS (DraftKings via ESPN, October 4 at 12:13 PM ET). Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-1), Paycor Stadium.
Jacksonville Jaguars are 2-1, won their last game, hold the 4th seed in the AFC in ESPN's standings, with a +46 point differential. Cincinnati Bengals are 2-1, lost their last game, hold the 8th seed in the AFC in ESPN's standings, with a +17 point differential. The spread has not moved from Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 since DraftKings opened it, and the total is unchanged at 51.5.
- Jacksonville Jaguars offense. Scores 27.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Trevor Lawrence has 54/81, 616 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT.
- Jacksonville Jaguars defense and injuries. Allows 12.0 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists CJ Williams (WR) and Wesley Williams (DE) as out.
- Cincinnati Bengals offense. Scores 26.7 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Joe Burrow has 73/103, 743 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT.
- Cincinnati Bengals defense and injuries. Allows 21.0 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists B.J. Hill (DT) and Bryan Cook (S) as out.
Moneylines of +120 and -142 imply 45.5% and 58.7%, which add to 104.1% because of the book's margin. Without it, Jacksonville Jaguars are 43.7% to win and Cincinnati Bengals 56.3%.
- Backing Cincinnati Bengals means believing they cover the 2.5-point spread at home, which takes a win by 3 points or more.
- Backing Jacksonville Jaguars means believing the game stays within 2.5 points, and at +120 a win outright also covers.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
Arizona Cardinals -2.5, total 43.5, 1:00 PM ET on CBS (DraftKings via ESPN, October 4 at 12:13 PM ET). Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at New York Giants (2-1), MetLife Stadium.
Arizona Cardinals are 1-2, lost 2 straight, hold the 15th seed in the NFC in ESPN's standings, with a -18 point differential. New York Giants are 2-1, won their last game, hold the 8th seed in the NFC in ESPN's standings, with a -9 point differential. The favorite changed: DraftKings opened New York Giants -7 and now has Arizona Cardinals -2.5, a swing of 9.5 points, and the total has fallen from 45.5 to 43.5.
- Arizona Cardinals offense. Scores 21.0 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Jacoby Brissett has 82/117, 652 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT.
- Arizona Cardinals defense and injuries. Allows 27.0 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Reggie Virgil (WR) and Carson Beck (QB) as out.
- New York Giants offense. Scores 15.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Jaxson Dart has 26/34, 250 YDS, 3 TD.
- New York Giants defense and injuries. Allows 18.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Thomas Fidone II (TE) and Devin Singletary (RB) as out.
Moneylines of -135 and +114 imply 57.4% and 46.7%, which add to 104.2% because of the book's margin. Without it, Arizona Cardinals are 55.1% to win and New York Giants 44.9%.
- Backing Arizona Cardinals means believing they cover the 2.5-point spread on the road, which takes a win by 3 points or more.
- Backing New York Giants means believing the game stays within 2.5 points, and at +114 a win outright also covers.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
Green Bay Packers -3, total 38.5, 1:00 PM ET on FOX (DraftKings via ESPN, October 4 at 12:13 PM ET). Green Bay Packers (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3), Raymond James Stadium.
Green Bay Packers are 1-2, lost their last game, hold the 14th seed in the NFC in ESPN's standings, with a -35 point differential. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 0-3, lost 3 straight, hold the 16th seed in the NFC in ESPN's standings, with a -17 point differential. The spread has moved from Green Bay Packers -1.5 to Green Bay Packers -3 since DraftKings opened it, and the total has fallen from 47.5 to 38.5.
- Green Bay Packers offense. Scores 18.7 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Jordan Love has 65/124, 844 YDS, 6 TD, 2 INT.
- Green Bay Packers defense and injuries. Allows 30.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Kevin Zeitler (G) and Jacob Monk (C) as out.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. Scores 20.7 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Baker Mayfield has 61/96, 615 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense and injuries. Allows 26.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Billy Schrauth (G) and Ko Kieft (TE) as out.
Moneylines of -162 and +136 imply 61.8% and 42.4%, which add to 104.2% because of the book's margin. Without it, Green Bay Packers are 59.3% to win and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40.7%.
- Backing Green Bay Packers means believing they cover the 3-point spread on the road, which takes a win by more than 3 points.
- Backing Tampa Bay Buccaneers means believing the game stays within 3 points, and at +136 a win outright also covers.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
Houston Texans -3, total 48.5, 1:00 PM ET on FOX (DraftKings via ESPN, October 4 at 12:13 PM ET). Dallas Cowboys (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-3), Reliant Stadium.
Dallas Cowboys are 1-2, lost their last game, hold the 10th seed in the NFC in ESPN's standings, with a +6 point differential. Houston Texans are 0-3, lost 3 straight, hold the 16th seed in the AFC in ESPN's standings, with a -21 point differential. The spread has moved from Houston Texans -2.5 to Houston Texans -3 since DraftKings opened it, and the total has risen from 47.5 to 48.5.
- Dallas Cowboys offense. Scores 29.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Dak Prescott has 73/105, 730 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT.
- Dallas Cowboys defense and injuries. Allows 27.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Camden Brown (WR) and Emari Demercado (RB) as out.
- Houston Texans offense. Scores 18.0 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and C.J. Stroud has 72/120, 794 YDS, 3 TD.
- Houston Texans defense and injuries. Allows 25.0 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Marlin Klein (TE) and Nate Thomas (OT) as out.
Moneylines of +124 and -148 imply 44.6% and 59.7%, which add to 104.3% because of the book's margin. Without it, Dallas Cowboys are 42.8% to win and Houston Texans 57.2%.
- Backing Houston Texans means believing they cover the 3-point spread at home, which takes a win by more than 3 points.
- Backing Dallas Cowboys means believing the game stays within 3 points, and at +124 a win outright also covers.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers Odds: Spread, Total and Matchup Breakdown
San Francisco 49ers -3, total 48.5, 4:25 PM ET on CBS (DraftKings via ESPN, October 4 at 12:13 PM ET). Denver Broncos (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0), Levi's Stadium.
Denver Broncos are 2-1, won 2 straight, hold the 7th seed in the AFC in ESPN's standings, with a -10 point differential. San Francisco 49ers are 3-0, won 3 straight, hold the 2nd seed in the NFC in ESPN's standings, with a +48 point differential. The spread has moved from San Francisco 49ers -2.5 to San Francisco 49ers -3 since DraftKings opened it, and the total has risen from 46.5 to 48.5.
- Denver Broncos offense. Scores 20.0 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Bo Nix has 56/93, 605 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT.
- Denver Broncos defense and injuries. Allows 23.3 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Dondrea Tillman (LB) and Jonathon Cooper (LB) as out.
- San Francisco 49ers offense. Scores 32.7 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and Brock Purdy has 60/83, 789 YDS, 9 TD, 1 INT.
- San Francisco 49ers defense and injuries. Allows 16.7 points per game against a league average of 22.9, and ESPN lists Mykel Williams (DE) as out.
Moneylines of +136 and -162 imply 42.4% and 61.8%, which add to 104.2% because of the book's margin. Without it, Denver Broncos are 40.7% to win and San Francisco 49ers 59.3%.
- Backing San Francisco 49ers means believing they cover the 3-point spread at home, which takes a win by more than 3 points.
- Backing Denver Broncos means believing the game stays within 3 points, and at +136 a win outright also covers.
Other NFL Games on Sunday's Slate
8 more games carry lines worth a look. These are the spreads, totals and win chances without a full breakdown.
| Game | Kickoff | Spread | Total | Favorite win chance | Underdog moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | 1:00 PM ET | Buffalo Bills -7 | 49.5 | 74.4% | New England Patriots +275 |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | 1:00 PM ET | Chicago Bears -3.5 | 43.5 | 63.7% | New York Jets +164 |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | 1:00 PM ET | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 42.5 | 63.7% | Philadelphia Eagles +164 |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | 1:00 PM ET | Baltimore Ravens -11.5 | 42.5 | 85.2% | Tennessee Titans +550 |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | 4:05 PM ET | Minnesota Vikings -10 | 38.5 | 80.8% | Miami Dolphins +400 |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 PM ET | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | 47.5 | 66.4% | Las Vegas Raiders +185 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | 4:25 PM ET | Seattle Seahawks -7 | 42.5 | 75.1% | Los Angeles Chargers +285 |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | 8:20 PM ET | Detroit Lions -3.5 | 51.5 | 63.7% | Carolina Panthers +164 |
How We Turn Moneylines Into Win Probabilities
A moneyline price converts to an implied probability, and the two sides of one game add to more than 100%. The excess is the sportsbook's margin.
We divide each side's implied probability by the total to remove that margin. The result is the win chance the price implies, which tells you what the market believes and nothing about what will happen.
Bet Within Your Limits
Odds describe a price and not an outcome, and even a heavy favorite loses often enough to matter over many bets. Set a limit before the early games and keep to it. Free support is available from GambleAware, and betting is for adults where it is legal.
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