NFL Week 4 Odds: Biggest Spread and Total Moves Since Opening
Cardinals flipped from 7-point underdogs to favorites over the Giants, and the Packers total fell 9 points. NFL Week 4 line moves and win chances.
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Key takeaways
- Arizona opened as a 7-point underdog at the Giants and is now a 2.5-point favorite, a swing of 9.5 points.
- The Packers and Buccaneers total fell from 47.5 to 38.5, the largest total move on the Week 4 board.
- Ten of the Week 4 games carry spreads of four points or less.
- All prices are DraftKings as shown by ESPN on October 2 at 12:50 AM ET and will keep moving.
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NFL Week 4 Odds: Where the Lines Have Moved
Week 4 opened with Cleveland beating Pittsburgh 27-24 on Thursday, and the rest of the slate is full of short spreads. ESPN counts ten games at four points or less, with Baltimore (-11.5) over Tennessee and Minnesota (-10.5) over Miami the main exceptions.
The more useful number for a bettor is how far each line has traveled since it opened. The table lists the games where the spread moved by three points or more, or the total by five or more, according to ESPN's DraftKings listing at 12:50 AM ET on October 2.
| Game | Spread now | Spread at open | Total now | Total at open |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona vs. NY Giants | Cardinals -2.5 | Giants -7 | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| NY Jets vs. Chicago | Bears -3.5 | Bears -8.5 | 43.5 | 45.5 |
| LA Chargers vs. Seattle | Seahawks -7 | Seahawks -3 | 42.5 | 45.5 |
| Tennessee vs. Baltimore | Ravens -11.5 | Ravens -8.5 | 42.5 | 47.5 |
| Miami vs. Minnesota | Vikings -10.5 | Vikings -7.5 | 38.5 | 43.5 |
| Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay | Packers -3.5 | Packers -1.5 | 38.5 | 47.5 |
| LA Rams vs. Philadelphia | Rams -3.5 | Rams -1.5 | 42.5 | 47.5 |
Cardinals and Giants: A 9.5-Point Swing in the Spread
Arizona at the Giants is the biggest spread move of the week. Arizona opened as a 7-point underdog and is now favored by 2.5, with the total at 44.5, down a point from 45.5. Moneylines of -142 for the Cardinals and +120 for the Giants imply 58.7% and 45.5%, which add to 104.1% because of the book's margin. Without it, Arizona are 56.3% to win and the Giants 43.7%.
ESPN's Football Power Index makes Arizona a favorite by 1.2 points with a 54% chance to win outright, so the model sits a little below the market price. ESPN's listing does not say why the line moved, and we will not guess.
Chargers at Seahawks and Jets at Bears: Spreads That Opened Far Apart
Seattle opened as a 3-point favorite over the Chargers and is now laid 7, with the Chargers at +295 and the Seahawks at -375. Those prices imply 25.3% and 78.9%, a total of 104.3%, and remove to 24.3% for Los Angeles and 75.7% for Seattle. ESPN's FPI projects Seattle by 6.8 points, close to the posted spread.
The Bears went the other way. They opened as 8.5-point favorites over the Jets and are now favored by 3.5. At +145 and -175 the moneylines imply 40.8% and 63.6%, or 39.1% for the Jets and 60.9% for Chicago once the 104.5% total is removed. FPI has the Bears by 3.3 points, in line with the current spread.
- Backing the Seahawks means believing Seattle wins by eight or more, a line that has already moved four points from the open.
- Backing the Chargers means believing the current number overstates Seattle, and +7 is more than the opening +3.
- Backing the Jets means believing the market has overcorrected from Bears -8.5 and a short Chicago win is not enough to cover.
NFL Totals Drop: Packers and Buccaneers Down Nine Points
The largest total move belongs to Green Bay and Tampa Bay, which opened at 47.5 and sits at 38.5, the lowest total of the week alongside Miami at Minnesota (also 38.5, down from 43.5). Tennessee at Baltimore fell five points to 42.5 and Los Angeles at Philadelphia fell five to 42.5.
Only two totals went up from the open by a meaningful amount. Detroit at Carolina rose from 45.5 to 50.5, and Kansas City at Las Vegas rose from 43.5 to 47.5. Jacksonville at Cincinnati carries the highest total of the week at 51.5, unchanged from the open.
Packers -185 and Buccaneers +154 imply 64.9% and 39.4%, which add to 104.3%. Without the margin, Green Bay are 62.2% to win and Tampa Bay 37.8%.
Compare NFL odds and check any two moneylines in our hold and no-vig calculator
How We Turn Moneylines Into Win Chances
A moneyline converts to an implied probability, and the two sides of one game add to more than 100%. The excess is the sportsbook's margin. We divide each side's implied probability by the total to remove it. The result is the win chance the price implies, and it describes the market, not the outcome.
Bet Within Your Limits
A line that moved is not a line that is right, and even a heavy favorite loses often enough to matter over many bets. Set a limit before the early games and keep to it. Free support is available from GambleAware, and betting is for adults where it is legal.
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