Martingale Calculator for Crypto Casino Games
A martingale calculator shows how many losses in a row your bankroll can cover and how often a doubling run ends in a bust. The figures below are exact, and every one of them can be reproduced by hand.
Key takeaways
- A $1,000 bankroll starting at $1 and doubling covers 9 losses in a row, and a 49.5% roll busts that run once in 468 cycles.
- A winning cycle pays your starting stake. A bust costs 511 times that, so the system trades many small wins for one large loss.
- Expected loss is always the house edge times the amount staked. Doubling raises the amount staked per cycle and never lowers the edge.
- Doubling only recovers your losses when the payout is 2x or higher. Below that, a late win can still leave you behind.
- Table limits and bankroll size decide the bust point, so enter your own maximum bet before you read the result.
On this page
- Martingale Calculator
- How Does the Martingale Strategy Work?
- Does Martingale Work in Crypto Casinos?
- How Often Does a Martingale Run Bust?
- How Likely Is a Long Losing Streak?
- Does Martingale Work With a Payout Below 2x?
- Can Table Limits Stop a Martingale Run?
- How Is the Martingale Calculator Worked Out?
- What Are Safer Ways to Size Your Bets?
- Martingale FAQs
Martingale Calculator
Enter your starting stake, the win chance and house edge of the game, your bankroll and the table maximum. The calculator returns the number of losses you can cover, the chance a run busts and the expected result per cycle.
| Payout multiplier | 2.0000x |
|---|---|
| Losses in a row you can cover | 9 |
| Largest stake you can place | 256.00 |
| Total at risk on the last bet | 511.00 |
| Chance one cycle ends in a bust | 0.214% |
| A bust comes about once every | 468 cycles |
| Chance of surviving 100 cycles | 80.7% |
| Profit when the first bet wins | 1.00 |
| Profit when the last covered bet wins | 1.00 |
| Expected amount staked per cycle | 9.37 |
| Expected result per cycle | −0.09 |
| Expected loss per 100 staked | 1.00 |
| Losses in a row | Next stake | Total lost so far | Chance of reaching it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 100% |
| 1 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 50.5% |
| 2 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 25.5% |
| 3 | 8.00 | 7.00 | 12.9% |
| 4 | 16.00 | 15.00 | 6.50% |
| 5 | 32.00 | 31.00 | 3.28% |
| 6 | 64.00 | 63.00 | 1.66% |
| 7 | 128.00 | 127.00 | 0.838% |
| 8 | 256.00 | 255.00 | 0.423% |
Every bet carries the same house edge, so the expected result per cycle is the edge times what you stake, and it is negative. The system moves the loss from many small bets into a rare large one.
A cycle is one run of bets that ends on the first win or on the point where you can no longer cover the next stake. The defaults are a $1 start, a 49.5% win chance and a 1% edge, which is a dice roll paying 2x.
How Does the Martingale Strategy Work?
The martingale strategy doubles your stake after every loss and returns to the starting stake after a win. A win then repays all earlier losses in the run and adds one starting stake of profit.
At a 2x payout the arithmetic is exact. A $1 start that loses four times has staked $1, $2, $4 and $8, and the fifth bet of $16 returns $32. You have spent $31 and received $32, so the run ends $1 ahead.
The profit never grows beyond that one stake, no matter how deep the run goes. The only thing that grows is the amount you must have available to place the next bet.
Does Martingale Work in Crypto Casinos?
No, martingale does not beat the house edge in any crypto casino game. Each dice roll, crash round or coin flip is drawn independently, so a losing run says nothing about the next result.
What the system changes is the shape of your results. You win a small amount very often and lose a large amount rarely, and the average of the two is exactly the expected loss the edge already predicted.
At a 49.5% win chance and a 1% edge, the calculator above reports an expected loss of 1.00 per 100 staked. Doubling leaves that figure untouched, which you can confirm by changing the stake multiplier and reading the same number back.
How Often Does a Martingale Run Bust?
A run busts when the number of losses in a row reaches the number your bankroll covers. With a win chance of p and n covered bets, the chance of a bust in one cycle is (1 minus p) raised to the power n.
The table below fixes the game at a 49.5% win chance and a 1% edge, starts at $1 and doubles. Each win in a cycle pays $1, so the right-hand columns show how long the run of $1 wins lasts before the loss arrives.
| Bankroll | Losses covered | Total lost on a bust | Chance a cycle busts | One bust every | 100 cycles with no bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 6 | $63 | 1.66% | 60 cycles | 18.8% |
| $500 | 8 | $255 | 0.423% | 236 cycles | 65.4% |
| $1,000 | 9 | $511 | 0.214% | 468 cycles | 80.7% |
| $5,000 | 12 | $4,095 | 0.0275% | 3,635 cycles | 97.3% |
| $10,000 | 13 | $8,191 | 0.0139% | 7,198 cycles | 98.6% |
Each doubling of the bankroll adds one covered loss and roughly halves the bust chance. It never removes it, and the loss on a bust is always larger than every win in the run combined.
How Likely Is a Long Losing Streak?
Ten losses in a row happen about once in 927 sequences at a 49.5% win chance. The chance of any streak is the loss chance multiplied by itself once per bet, so it depends heavily on the win chance you pick.
| Win chance | Chance of 10 losses in a row | Roughly one in |
|---|---|---|
| 75% | 0.0001% | 1,048,576 |
| 49.5% | 0.108% | 927 |
| 33% | 1.82% | 55 |
| 10% | 34.9% | 3 |
Doubling at a low win chance fails quickly because losses are the normal result. Doubling at a high win chance fails for a different reason, which the next section explains.
Does Martingale Work With a Payout Below 2x?
No, doubling only recovers your losses when the payout is at least 2x. Below that, a win pays less than the stake you doubled to place, so the run can end with you behind.
Take a 66% win chance, which pays 1.5x at a 1% edge. After two losses of $1 and $2 you stake $4. A win returns $6, which is $2 of profit on that bet, but you have spent $7 in total, so the run ends $1 down.
The calculator shows this in the profit rows. If the last covered bet shows a negative profit, a win there still loses money, and the cover you computed is worth less than it looks.
Can Table Limits Stop a Martingale Run?
Yes, a maximum bet caps how far the doubling can go. Casinos set the limit per game and it differs between sites, so enter the one shown on your own game in the table maximum field.
A limit shortens the run even when your bankroll is large. With a $10,000 bankroll and a $100 maximum starting from $1, you cover seven losses rather than thirteen, and the chance of a bust in one cycle rises from 0.0139% to 0.838%.
Check the maximum before you rely on a bankroll figure. The lower of the two numbers is the one that ends the run.
How Is the Martingale Calculator Worked Out?
The calculator uses closed-form probability with no simulation, so the same inputs always give the same output. It builds the stake sequence, stops where the bankroll or the table limit stops, and weights each outcome by its chance.
- Payout multiplier. 100 minus the house edge, divided by the win chance, as on the dice page.
- Covered bets. The count of stakes whose running total stays within your bankroll and under the table limit.
- Bust chance. The loss chance raised to the power of the covered bets.
- Expected result. Each win outcome times its chance, minus the total lost on a bust times the bust chance.
As a check, the expected result divided by the expected amount staked always returns minus the house edge. At the defaults that is minus 1.00%, from an expected loss of 0.094 on 9.37 staked.
What Are Safer Ways to Size Your Bets?
Flat staking with a fixed share of your bankroll is the simplest way to cap a loss, because the stake does not climb after a loss. Our bankroll calculator shows the chance of finishing a session in profit and the chance of losing the whole bankroll at each stake size.
Kelly sizing needs an edge, and casino games do not give you one, so its answer here is a stake of zero. Set a loss limit before you play and treat it as the price of the session.
Martingale FAQs
Is the martingale strategy profitable?
No. The expected result of a martingale run is the house edge times the amount staked, which is negative. The strategy produces frequent small wins and a rare large loss, and the average is unchanged.
What bankroll do you need for martingale?
A bankroll of 511 times your starting stake covers nine losses at a 49.5% win chance, and the run still busts about once in 468 cycles. No bankroll removes the risk, it only lengthens the interval.
Does martingale work on crash?
No. A crash round has the same house edge at every cash-out target, so doubling your stake after a loss changes the amount you risk and leaves the expected loss per amount staked as it was.
Is martingale safe with a stop loss?
A stop loss caps the damage, but it turns the system into a bet that wins $1 in most cycles and loses the stop amount in the rest. The expected result is still negative.
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