Crypto Casino Bankroll Calculator
A bankroll calculator shows what a session is expected to cost and how likely you are to finish in profit or with nothing left. The chances are exact binomial figures, not a simulation, so they do not change between runs.
Key takeaways
- Expected loss is the amount staked times the house edge, so 200 bets of $10 at a 1% edge cost $20 on average.
- Stake size changes the risk and the cost together. Staking 5% of a $1,000 bankroll over 200 bets leaves an 11.5% chance of finishing with it gone.
- The chance of finishing a 200-bet session in profit is 41.6% at every stake size, because only the number of wins decides it.
- A bankroll lasts about its size divided by stake times house edge, which is 10,000 bets for $1,000 at $10 and 1%.
- No stake size turns a negative edge positive, so the calculator prices a session and does not promise a result.
On this page
- Bankroll Calculator
- How Much of Your Bankroll Should You Stake Per Bet?
- What Is the Expected Loss on a Casino Session?
- How Much Can a Short Session Swing?
- How Long Does a Bankroll Last?
- Should You Count Your Bankroll in Fiat or in Crypto?
- Does the Kelly Criterion Work for Casino Games?
- How Do You Set a Loss Limit?
- Bankroll Calculator FAQs
Bankroll Calculator
Enter your bankroll, the stake per bet, the game's win chance and house edge, and how many bets you plan to place. The calculator returns the expected loss, the typical swing and the chance of each outcome.
| Payout multiplier | 2.0000x |
|---|---|
| Bankroll in stakes | 100.0 |
| Total staked over the session | 2,000.00 |
| Expected loss | 20.00 |
| Typical swing (one standard deviation) | 141.41 |
| Chance of finishing in profit | 41.6% |
| Chance of finishing with the bankroll gone | <0.1% |
| Bets until the expected loss equals the bankroll | 10,000 |
| Stake as share of bankroll | Stake | Expected loss | Chance of profit | Chance bankroll is gone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | 5.00 | 10.00 | 41.6% | <0.1% |
| 1.0% | 10.00 | 20.00 | 41.6% | <0.1% |
| 2.0% | 20.00 | 40.00 | 41.6% | <0.1% |
| 5.0% | 50.00 | 100.00 | 41.6% | 11.5% |
| 10.0% | 100.00 | 200.00 | 41.6% | 31.0% |
Chances are exact for the end of the session and use the binomial distribution. A bankroll can also hit zero partway through and then be topped up or recover, which this table does not count, so the chance of going broke at any point is higher than the figure shown.
The defaults are a $1,000 bankroll, $10 stakes, a 49.5% win chance and a 1% edge over 200 bets. That is a dice roll paying 2x, and it is the game the figures on this page use.
How Much of Your Bankroll Should You Stake Per Bet?
A stake of 1% to 2% of your bankroll keeps the chance of losing everything in a 200-bet session near zero. The table below holds the bets, win chance and edge at the defaults and changes only the stake.
| Stake as share of bankroll | Stake | Expected loss over 200 bets | Chance of profit | Chance bankroll is gone |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | $5 | $10 | 41.6% | 0.00% |
| 1% | $10 | $20 | 41.6% | 0.00% |
| 2% | $20 | $40 | 41.6% | 0.04% |
| 5% | $50 | $100 | 41.6% | 11.46% |
| 10% | $100 | $200 | 41.6% | 31.04% |
The chance of profit does not move because only the number of wins decides it. The cost and the chance of ruin both rise with the stake, so a bigger stake buys you nothing except a faster loss.
What Is the Expected Loss on a Casino Session?
The expected loss on a session is the total amount staked multiplied by the house edge. It is the average of many sessions and not a forecast of any single one.
Two hundred bets of $10 stake $2,000, and a 1% edge makes the expected loss $20. The same session at a 2% edge costs $40, which is why the edge you choose matters more than any staking pattern.
How Much Can a Short Session Swing?
A 200-bet session at $10 swings by about $141 in either direction, and that is far larger than the $20 expected loss. The swing is one standard deviation, which is the stake times the square root of the number of bets at an even-money payout.
That gap is why short sessions feel unpredictable. The edge is a small steady cost, while the result of any one session is dominated by luck, and the longer you play the more the cost shows through.
| Bets | Total staked at $10 | Expected loss at 1% | Typical swing | Chance of profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | $500 | $5 | $71 | 41.6% |
| 200 | $2,000 | $20 | $141 | 41.6% |
| 1,000 | $10,000 | $100 | $316 | 36.4% |
The swing grows with the square root of the bets while the loss grows with the bets themselves. Over a thousand bets the cost is a third of the swing, and the chance of finishing ahead falls from 41.6% to 36.4%.
How Long Does a Bankroll Last?
A bankroll lasts about its size divided by the stake times the house edge, counted in bets. A $1,000 bankroll at $10 a bet and a 1% edge is expected to be spent after 10,000 bets.
That is an average, and a bankroll can disappear far sooner. Staking 10% of it per bet puts the chance of finishing a 1,000-bet session with nothing at 51.3%.
Use the last row of the calculator to compare setups. Halving the stake doubles the number of bets the bankroll is expected to last.
Should You Count Your Bankroll in Fiat or in Crypto?
Count it in the currency you measure your loss in. If you hold coins that move in price, the dollar value of your bankroll and of each stake moves with them.
A stake of 0.001 BTC is a different share of your bankroll at different prices, so a fixed stake in coins can drift from the percentage you meant to risk. Recalculate when the price changes by a lot.
A stablecoin removes that drift, because the stake and the bankroll move together.
Does the Kelly Criterion Work for Casino Games?
No, the Kelly criterion returns a stake of zero for any bet with a negative edge. Kelly sizes a stake from an advantage you hold, and a casino game gives the advantage to the house.
Our Kelly calculator confirms it. Enter a win probability below the implied probability of the price and the answer is not to bet.
How Do You Set a Loss Limit?
Set a loss limit before you play, at an amount you can afford to lose, and stop when you reach it. The calculator gives the expected cost of a session, and the swing shows how far past that figure a normal session can run.
Treat the expected loss as the price of the entertainment and the swing as the range around it. If the swing alone is more than you can afford, lower the stake or shorten the session.
Bankroll Calculator FAQs
How much should you bet per spin or round?
A stake of 1% to 2% of your bankroll is a common limit. At 1% the chance of losing the whole bankroll in a 200-bet session is effectively zero, and at 5% it rises to 11.5%.
Is the chance of ruin exact?
The chance of finishing a session below zero is exact. The chance of touching zero at any point during the session is higher, because a bankroll can hit zero and then recover, which the table does not count.
Why does the chance of profit stay the same at every stake?
Because the result depends on how many bets you win, not on how much each is worth. Every stake in the table needs the same number of wins to finish ahead.
Does a higher win chance reduce the cost?
No. Expected loss is the amount staked times the house edge at every win chance. A higher win chance changes the swing, with small frequent wins, and the average cost is the same.
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