Wembanyama Goes 1-for-13 in Spurs Opener, and the Rockets Line Grew

Wembanyama Misses His First 12 Shots as Thunder Beat Spurs

Victor Wembanyama made one of 13 shots Tuesday night in a 116-104 loss to Oklahoma City, ESPN reported. His only field goal came on a lob dunk at the third-quarter buzzer, after he missed his first 12 attempts, which Elias says ties the second-most misses to open a season opener since 1997-98. He finished with 12 points, 13 rebounds and six blocks.

Oklahoma City led by 26 in the second quarter after shooting 10-of-14 from three in the first half, and Chet Holmgren, who had four points in Game 7 of last season's conference finals, scored 14 with four blocks while guarding Wembanyama. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32, per ESPN.

I might be overthinking it. I don't need to do more.

San Antonio started a guard-heavy lineup of Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell. Coach Mitch Johnson said everyone struggled, while Fox and Castle each said the guards need to get Wembanyama his catches in better spots.

Spurs vs. Rockets Odds: What the Market Did

The next test is Friday night at home against Houston. DraftKings opened San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite and now has the Spurs at -7.5, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 21 at 9:00 AM ET. The total has not moved.

The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.

Our Read: One Bad Shooting Night Versus a Real Problem

A season opener is one game, and the market's response says as much.

• The market looked past the box score. The Spurs line got longer after a loss in which their star shot 8%, which suggests bettors treated the night as noise. That is our guess, not a reported cause.
• The Thunder defense is a genuine data point. Oklahoma City showed Wembanyama crowds without freeing San Antonio's other scorers, and Mark Daigneault described it as the right balance. A coach describing a plan is not proof it will repeat.
• Last year's numbers cut the other way. Wembanyama shot 52.4% against Oklahoma City in the regular season and scored 27.3 per game against them in the conference finals, per ESPN, so a 1-for-13 night looks more like an outlier than a trend.
• The lineup is the question worth tracking. Five guards and wings around one big is new, and the players themselves said spacing and entry passes need work. That is a fixable habit, but it may take more than one game.

None of this says San Antonio is the right side Friday. It explains why a rough opener and a growing spread can sit side by side.

What to Watch Before Friday

• Wembanyama's shot locations: whether Fox and Castle get him catches closer to the rim.
• How Houston defends him, and whether it sends the same crowds Oklahoma City did.
• Whether the Spurs line moves again before the Prime Video tip.
• How the guard-heavy starting five fares in its second game together.

Learn how point spreads and moneylines relate before you read a line

Odds describe a price and not an outcome. Set a limit before you bet, and bet only where it is legal.