Texans and Titans Meet at 0-4, and the Line Has Moved 3.5 Points

Texans and Titans Both Arrive Winless on Sunday

For the second straight year, Houston and Tennessee meet while both are looking for a first win. ESPN reports that both teams are 0-4 for Sunday's 1 p.m. ET game in Nashville on CBS. Houston won last year's meeting 23-0.

The Texans' problem is on defense. ESPN says the unit ranks 26th in points allowed per game at 27.3 and has given up late game-winning drives in three of four games, so coach DeMeco Ryans has taken over the defensive play calling. Quarterback C.J. Stroud is sixth in passing yards with 1,141. The Titans have lost their last three by a combined 17 points, with late mistakes costing them against the Eagles and the Giants.

I just feel like if we can just get one, it'll snowball.

Texans at Titans Odds: What the Market Did

The market has leaned hard toward Houston. DraftKings opened the Texans as 3.5-point road favorites and now has them at 7, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 10 at 9:10 AM ET.

The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.

Our Read: Why Two Winless Teams Are Not Priced Alike

Equal records do not mean equal teams, and the number says the market sees a gap.

• The market may be pricing last year. Houston went 12-5 and won a playoff game, while Tennessee finished 3-14. A seven-point spread looks like talent and track record outweighing four weeks of results.
• Close losses cut both ways. The Titans' three recent losses were by 17 points combined, which can mean they are better than 0-4 or can mean they cannot finish. ESPN's own reporting points to turnovers, penalties and a blown coverage.
• A 38.5 total says low scoring. A five-point drop suggests a lower-scoring game is expected. That sits oddly beside a Houston defense allowing 27.3 points, so the move may reflect Tennessee's offense more than Houston's defense.
• Ryans calling the defense is an unknown. A coach changing duties after four games is a signal, but there is no sample yet to say whether it helps.

A favorite of a touchdown can still lose by a field goal, and the evidence here points in both directions.

What to Watch in Houston-Tennessee

• How Houston's defense performs in the fourth quarter under Ryans' play calling.
• Whether Tennessee avoids the turnover and penalty trouble Saleh keeps citing.
• Whether the spread moves again before the 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
• The AFC South picture: Jacksonville is 3-1 and Indianapolis is 2-2, per ESPN.

See more NFL odds and line movement

Odds describe a price and not an outcome. Set a limit before you bet, and bet only where it is legal.