Seahawks' Turnover Problem Meets the Broncos on Thursday Night

Seahawks Offensive Coordinator Brian Fleury and a Turnover Problem

Seattle (3-2) visits Denver (3-2) on Thursday night, 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with a first-year play-caller whose offense looks better on the scoreboard than in the efficiency numbers. ESPN reports the Seahawks rank eighth in scoring at 26.8 points per game, but 25th in expected points added and 26th in ESPN's efficiency metric.

The cause, per ESPN, is giveaways and a thin run game. Sam Darnold has thrown five interceptions in three games since returning in Week 3, and Seattle's backfield has combined for five fumbles, losing four. The Seahawks' nine turnovers are tied for fifth most in the league, and the 44 points opponents have scored off them are tied for the most. In their two losses, decided by a combined five points, seven turnovers led to 41 opponent points.

Way too many giveaways at this point in the season.

Running back Zach Charbonnet is ruled out, rookie Jadarian Price is on injured reserve, and a deal for Joe Mixon fell through after a failed physical, ESPN reports. Seattle is averaging 106.0 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. Coach Mike Macdonald has pointed to execution over coaching.

Seahawks at Broncos Odds: What the Market Did

Seattle opened as a small road favorite and the spread has not moved, but the total has dropped three points. Figures are DraftKings, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 15 at 9:10 AM ET.

The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.

Our Read: Why Seattle's Offense Is Hard to Price

• Scoring and efficiency disagree. A top-eight scoring offense that sits 26th in efficiency has probably been helped by defense and special teams, which ESPN says have covered for it. That gap can close in either direction.
• Turnovers are partly habit, partly noise. Fumbles and interceptions are volatile from week to week, but five picks in three games from the starter is a pattern worth respecting, not dismissing.
• A lower total fits the injuries. With Charbonnet out and Surtain listed out on the other side, three points off the total could reflect two thin units. That is our guess, not something the feed states.
• The evidence cuts both ways. Both losses were one-score games, which argues Seattle is closer to its record than its metrics suggest, yet the same turnovers are what made those games close.

Fleury's calm approach has earned praise inside the building, but a short week leaves little room to fix ball security.

What to Watch on Thursday Night

• Who carries the load for Seattle with Charbonnet out and Emanuel Wilson and George Holani leading the backfield.
• Whether Seattle uses Rashid Shaheed out of the backfield, as it did in Week 4.
• Turnovers in the first half, since opponents have scored so heavily off them.
• The standings: San Francisco is 5-0, per ESPN, so Seattle is chasing in the NFC West.

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