Ramirez Miscue and Peralta Fastball Even ALCS, Game 3 Line Set

Rays Beat Guardians 3-1 After Jose Ramirez Miscue in ALCS Game 2

Tampa Bay evened the American League Championship Series at 1-1 on Tuesday night with a 3-1 win, and all three Rays runs were unearned, ESPN reported. In a scoreless fourth, Ramirez left third base uncovered on Chandler Simpson's infield chopper, then Ben Williamson's grounder skipped between his legs. Liam Hicks followed with a two-run single.

When they smell blood, they take it and run.

Freddy Peralta, acquired from the Mets in early August, threw six scoreless innings with six strikeouts. ESPN says 72 percent of his pitches were fastballs, his highest share in a game since 2019, and Cleveland went 3-for-17 against the pitch, all singles. He has a 0.81 ERA over his past eight starts, regular season and playoffs.

Rays at Guardians Game 3 Odds: What the Market Did

Cleveland is a small favorite at home. Per ESPN's odds feed (DraftKings) as of October 14 at 9:10 AM ET, the Guardians are -131 and the total is 6.5 runs.

The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.

Our Read: Luck, Defense and a Fastball Pitcher

This is our commentary, and it separates what repeats from what does not.

• The runs were a gift, not a trend. A play at the turf edge and a mental lapse are hard to forecast. Ramirez had three hits in Game 1, so one night does not reshape what he is.
• Peralta's fastball is the repeatable part. A 0.81 ERA across eight starts is a real stretch, and Cleveland said it expected the velocity and still could not square it up.
• The price barely changed. The moneyline moved two cents on each side, which suggests the market treated Game 2 as close to a coin flip with a slightly better home team.
• The lower total fits the pitching. Half a run off 7 is consistent with a series where both sides leaned on strong arms, though that is our reading.

What to Watch in ALCS Game 3

• Whether Cleveland plays Game 3 cleaner on the field and keeps Ramirez focused after the error.
• Whether Tampa Bay can score without a defensive gift, since all three of its Game 2 runs were unearned.
• Whether the Guardians can hit fastballs above the zone, where Peralta found success.
• Whether the total drifts back to 7 by first pitch.

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