Colts Trade Buckner and Nelson, and the Jaguars Line Has Jumped

Colts Trade DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson in a Franchise-Altering Day

Indianapolis traded defensive tackle DeForest Buckner back to the San Francisco 49ers and All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks on Tuesday, ESPN reported. Both were in the final year of their contracts, and the deals followed last week's firing of general manager Chris Ballard.

Seattle sent a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-rounder for Nelson, and San Francisco sent a 2027 fourth-round pick for Buckner, per ESPN. The Colts, 2-5 after a third straight loss to Minnesota, have no first-round pick in 2027 because it goes to the Jets, and ESPN expects them to hear offers for Jonathan Taylor, Grover Stewart and Josh Downs.

I don't know, how 'bout you guess. I'm frustrated.

Colts at Jaguars Odds: What the Market Did

Indianapolis visits Jacksonville on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET on CBS. DraftKings opened the Jaguars as 4.5-point favorites and now lists them at 9.5, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 28 at 9:12 AM ET.

The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.

Our Read: What a Rebuild Does to a Point Spread

This is our interpretation of the public facts, not a reported cause of the move.

• The market may be pricing intent. Trading two starters at the deadline signals that this season is no longer the priority. A five-point move is large, and it fits a market treating the Colts as a team that has stopped competing, though the feed cannot confirm that.
• The loss is real on both lines. Nelson anchored the blocking for Taylor, and Buckner was a pass rusher the defense leaned on. Replacements are almost certainly a step down, which is why the shorter total is also plausible.
• Jacksonville is only 4-2. Nine and a half points asks a lot of a team with two losses. The number says as much about Indianapolis as about the Jaguars.
• The evidence cuts both ways. Teams after a coaching or front office shake-up sometimes play loose and keep games close. Seven games is a small sample, and we would not read the spread as destiny.

Our view is that the roster news explains more of the spread than anything that happens on the field Sunday, and that more subtractions would move it again.

What to Watch Before Sunday

• Whether Taylor, Stewart or Downs is moved before the trade deadline, which would change the Colts offense again.
• Who starts on the offensive line and defensive interior in place of Nelson and Buckner.
• Whether the spread climbs past 10 or settles back.
• Who Indianapolis hires to run football operations, since ESPN says that person inherits the rebuild.

More Odds and Betting Context

Lines change quickly and every figure here is a snapshot. Bet only what you can afford to lose, and seek help through your local problem gambling line if wagering stops being fun.

See NFL odds and line movement

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