Bo Nix Is Near the Bottom of the League, and the Broncos Line Has Dropped
ESPN's data shows Bo Nix ranked 31st in QBR and last in yards per attempt, yet Denver is 4-2. Here is how the Broncos at Cardinals line has moved and why.
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Key takeaways
- ESPN reports Bo Nix ranks 31st in QBR (38.2) and 32nd in yards per attempt (5.6) among qualifying quarterbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats and ESPN Research.
- Broncos coach Sean Payton said he has no intention of benching Nix, and Denver is 4-2 with a defense carrying the team.
- DraftKings opened Denver at Arizona at Broncos -7.5 and now lists Broncos -4.5, a three-point move toward the Cardinals, per ESPN's feed.
- Sources told ESPN the likeliest offseason path is exercising Nix's fifth-year option and waiting, not a long-term extension.
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Bo Nix Struggles Put the Broncos Quarterback Plan in Question
ESPN reported Thursday that Nix and the Denver offense are "full-tilt headed in the wrong direction" even as the defense has carried the Broncos to a 4-2 start. By ESPN's numbers, Nix is 31st in QBR at 38.2 and last of the qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt at 5.6. His 5.4 air yards per attempt is tied for the second lowest for any quarterback since 2000.
I'm confident in myself, I know I'm going to get back.
Payton, who took play calling back from coordinator Davis Webb two games ago, said again he will not bench Nix and put the blame on himself. Nix has also run less, with 22 carries for 37 yards and none longer than 10 yards, though he said his ankle is not a worry. ESPN's sources floated several theories, from the two offseason ankle surgeries to defenses adjusting to the passing scheme.
Broncos at Cardinals Odds: What the Market Did
The game kicks off Sunday at 4:05 PM ET on CBS. DraftKings opened Denver as a 7.5-point road favorite and has cut that to 4.5, per ESPN's odds feed as of October 23 at 9:05 AM ET. Arizona is 2-4 and 0-2 at home, per the same feed.
| Market | Opening | Current | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver -7.5 | Denver -4.5 | 3 points toward Arizona |
| Broncos moneyline | -360 | -230 | Shorter favorite |
| Cardinals moneyline | +285 | +190 | Shorter underdog |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.5 | No change |
The feed does not say why a line moved, so everything after this table is our reading and not a reported cause.
Our Read: What the Market May Be Pricing on Denver
This is our own interpretation of the facts above.
- The offense has lost its floor. A quarterback who rarely throws downfield and still sits near the bottom in success rate gives the market little reason to lay a touchdown on the road.
- The record may be flattering. Denver is 15-2 in one-score games with Nix since 2025, and a run like that often says as much about defense and luck as about the offense.
- The schedule argues the other way. ESPN notes three of the next four opponents, Arizona, Carolina and Las Vegas, rank 21st or lower in defense, so a soft patch could mask the problem.
- The flat total is telling. The number did not move at all, which fits a market that sees a tighter game but not a shootout.
The evidence points both ways: the metrics are alarming, but the team keeps winning, and a short week of changes can fix a lot.
What to Watch in Denver This Sunday
- Whether Payton opens up the offense with deeper throws or keeps the check-down heavy approach.
- Nix's rushing, since he has no run of 10 yards or more this season.
- Third-down conversions, where Denver ranks 31st, per ESPN.
- Whether the line drifts further before kickoff.
Convert any moneyline to implied probability with our NFL odds tools
Odds describe a price and not an outcome. Set a limit before you bet, and bet only where it is legal.
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